Organizational Behavior Management in Sport Studies

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Future Scenario Planning of Grassroots Sports in Iran Using a Futures Studies Approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student Of Sport management, Ha.C., Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iran.

2 Department of Sport Management, Ka.C, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran.

3 Department of Sport Management, Ka.C, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran

4 Department of Physical Education, Mal.C., Islamic Azad University, Malayer, Iran.

Abstract

Background and Purpose: Grassroots sports, as the foundational pillar of national sports systems, play a significant role in the development of public sports participation and the success of elite sports. In recent years, increasing environmental complexity, rapid social and technological changes, and growing uncertainty in sports governance have highlighted the importance of adopting futures studies approaches in sports planning and policymaking. The purpose of this study was to develop future scenarios for grassroots sports in Iran using a futures studies approach with a horizon toward 1412. Given the strategic importance of grassroots sports in talent identification, sustainable sports development, public health promotion, and social cohesion, identifying the key drivers shaping their future can provide a scientific basis for long-term decision-making and strategic planning in the Iranian sports system. Previous studies in sports futures have mainly focused on strategic management, sports governance, talent development systems, and sustainable sports policies; however, limited research has specifically addressed the future scenarios of grassroots sports in Iran. Therefore, this study aimed to fill this gap by identifying influential drivers, uncertainties, and plausible future pathways for grassroots sports development.
Methodology: This research was qualitative, applied, and exploratory in nature and was conducted using futures studies methods and scenario planning techniques. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with experts in sports management, policymakers, academics, and professionals involved in grassroots sports development. The sampling method was purposive, and interviews continued until theoretical saturation was achieved. In the first stage, influential factors affecting the future of grassroots sports were extracted through thematic analysis of interviews and literature review. Subsequently, the identified variables were categorized and analyzed using cross-impact analysis. Scenario Wizard software was employed to determine the degree of influence and uncertainty of variables and to identify key driving forces. To ensure the validity and reliability of the findings, several strategies were adopted, including member checking, expert review, triangulation of data sources, and iterative analysis. The research process involved identifying environmental trends, analyzing causal relationships among variables, determining critical uncertainties, and finally constructing coherent future scenarios for grassroots sports in Iran.
Results: The findings revealed that several drivers have a decisive role in shaping the future of grassroots sports in Iran. Among the most influential factors were sports policymaking and governance, financial resources and investment, human resource development, sports infrastructure, sports culture, public participation, educational systems, technological advancement, and talent identification mechanisms. Structural analysis demonstrated that governance quality and sustainable financial support were among the most influential and least controllable variables, indicating their strategic significance in determining future developments. Based on the interaction of key drivers and uncertainties, several plausible future scenarios were developed, ranging from pessimistic and fragmented futures characterized by weak governance, declining participation, and inadequate infrastructure, to optimistic and sustainable futures featuring integrated policymaking, effective talent development systems, increased public engagement, and equitable access to sports opportunities. The findings further suggested that the future of grassroots sports in Iran will largely depend on the ability of policymakers to adapt to emerging social, economic, and technological transformations. In addition, strengthening institutional coordination, investing in sports education, and promoting a participatory sports culture were identified as essential components for achieving sustainable development in grassroots sports.
Discussion: The results of this study indicate that the future of grassroots sports in Iran is highly dynamic and influenced by interconnected political, economic, social, cultural, and technological factors. The analysis of influence-dependence relationships showed that governance structures, funding mechanisms, and talent identification systems act as strategic drivers capable of significantly shaping future outcomes. These findings are consistent with previous studies emphasizing the importance of strategic foresight, adaptive governance, and sustainable resource allocation in sports development. Furthermore, the study highlights that uncertainty regarding economic conditions, policy continuity, and institutional collaboration may create substantial challenges for the long-term development of grassroots sports. Nevertheless, the existence of opportunities such as digital technologies, growing awareness of healthy lifestyles, and increasing societal attention to sports can facilitate positive transformations if managed strategically. Overall, the scenario-based approach adopted in this research provides a comprehensive framework for understanding alternative futures and supports sports managers and policymakers in making informed strategic decisions under uncertain conditions. The study ultimately emphasizes the necessity of integrating futures thinking into national sports planning to ensure resilience, sustainability, and balanced development of grassroots sports in Iran.

Keywords

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Organizational Behavior Management in Sport Studies
Volume 11, Issue 2 - Serial Number 42
July 2024
Pages 85-104
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